Predictions: NPD November 2008

NPD video game sales data for November 2008 will be released this Thursday. 

Predictions

Format: “Total Hardware” (“Weekly Hardware” | “% change of weekly sales over October”)

Wii: 1440k ( 360k | +79.33% )
360: 840k ( 210k | +126.42% )
PS3: 392k ( 98k | +106.32% )
PS2: 316k ( 79k | +132.35% )
NDS: 1320k ( 330k | +168.84% )
PSP: 540k ( 135k | +179.79% )

Notes regarding my predictions:

  • A general rule regarding November HW totals is that they are 2x October numbers. Of course, the multiplier varies based on stock issues and price.
  • Wii sales will be enormous – Nintendo announced that 800k consoles were sold over the week of Thanksgiving, and there have been reports of massive restocks throughout the entire month.
  • PS3 will have trouble eclipsing 400k thanks to its high price and the fact that many Blu-ray players are now retailing for under 200 dollars.
  • 360’s new price and comprehensive ad campaign should ensure continued growth.

Actual sales data from The NPD Group will be released on Thursday, December 11th after market close (4:00 PM).

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